Newsletters

Summer 2010 - Features: Antonio's Notes, Project Spotlight on Illicit Trafficking Demo, TPAI Focus Areas and Projects.
Spring 2010 - Features: Antonio's Notes, Project Focus on Knowledge Encapsulation Framework (KEF), Serious Gaming Technology, Illicit Nuclear Trafficking, and Energy Efficiency/Conservation and Grid Vulnerability.
Summer 2009 - Features: Antonio's Notes, Project Spotlight on Impact of Energy Consumpt ion, User Behavior, and Policies & Technology on Global & National Energy Security, and TPAI Focus Areas and Projects.
Winter 2009 - Features: Antonio's Notes, Project Spotlight on Dynamic Scenarios for Organizations in Infrastructures, and Project Status.
Fall 2008 - Features: Analytic Transformation, Project Spotlight on Knowledge Encapsulation Framework, and Fourth Quarter Project Status.
Summer 2008 - Features: AAAI Spring Symposium, Project Spotlight on Serious Gaming, and Third Quarter Project Status.
Spring 2008 - Features: Focus Areas, Primary R D Areas, and Projects Spotlight including Predicting the Impact of Climate Change on U.S. Power Grids and Its Wider Implications on National Security and Vulnerability of Food Security and Energy Infrastructures to Climate Change and Terrorism.
Winter 2008 - Features: Technosocial Modeling to Explore Plausible Futures, What's in a Name, and Project Status Reports.

Initiative Fact Sheets

Analytical Gaming - Excerpt: Computers still lack many of the distinct properties that allow humans to reason about what they observe, to make judgments, and to alter their behavior as a result. So, how do we best engage human experts in tandem with the ever-expanding suite of computational models and tools in such a way that humans and computers can work together more effectively to generate insights regarding potential futures?
Behavior and Energy Efficiency: Energy Efficiency/Conservation and Grid Vulnerability - Excerpt: Transforming the economy to achieve a sustainable supply of clean energy will require transforming people's relationship with power consumption. Over the past 120 years, energy consumption has become increasingly invisible to people in residential settings through the evolution of technology, from wood stoves to coal furnaces, finally to oil and natural gas.
Climate Change & Grid Vulnerability: Energy Efficiency/Conservation and Grid Vulnerability - Excerpt: To address the impact of global climate change on the U.S. power grids and its implications on society and national security. An example of climate change is increased atmospheric temperature, which in turn increases electricity consumption when people turn to fans and air conditioning to find relief from the heat.
Illicit Nuclear Trafficking - Excerpt: Illicit nuclear trafficking networks are a national security challenge. These networks can directly lead to nuclear proliferation, as states or non-state groups attempt to identify and acquire nuclear weapons-related expertise, technologies, components, and materials.
Knowledge Encapsulation Framework (KEF) - Excerpt: Computational modeling is an intellectual endeavor requiring domain collaboration across a number of subject–matter experts (SMEs), models and programmers. This activity is rarely enabled through collaborative means, making the activity less efficient, more time consuming and therefore more expensive.
TPA: Creating Decision Advantage through the Integration of Human & Physical Models - Excerpt: Events occur daily that challenge the security, health and sustainable growth of our nation, and often find us unprepared for the catastrophic outcomes. If we are to meet the challenges that emerge from these events, we must develop novel methods for proactive analysis that support a concerted decision-making effort by analyst and policymakers to protect our freedoms and way of life.
Technosocial Simulations: Where Climate Change meets National Security - Excerpt: The integration of climate change, land use and energy production/use models with social, cultural, political and behavioral models of human motivation and intent is central to understanding the complex relationship between climate change and national security.

Publications

2011

Social Modeling In Assessment of a State's Propensity for Nuclear Proliferation
Coles GA, AJ Brothers, AC Dalton, and PD Whitney. In INMM 52nd Annual Meeting. 2011. PNNL-SA-80517.
Integrating Nuclear Proliferation Modeling, Inference, Technologies, and Assessments: An Application to State-Specific Proliferation Risk Assessment Case Studies
Dalton AC, AM White, SJ Walsh, GA Coles, AJ Brothers, J Olson, and PD Whitney. In INMM 52nd Annual Meeting. 2011. PNNL-SA-80629. [Forthcoming]
Social Predictive Analytics and Terrorism Deterrence
Sanfilippo AP, and LR McGrath. In IEEE Intelligent Systems. 2011. PNNL-SA-80259. [Forthcoming July/August 2011 issue]
Parameterizing Bayesian networks Through Elicitation by Conjoint Analysis, Application to a Model for Assessing a State's Nuclear Proliferation Propensity
Walsh SJ, TR Shippert, AC Dalton, AM White, and PD Whitney. In International Journal of Approximate Reasoning . 2011. PNNL-SA-77782.
Violent Frames in Action
Sanfilippo, Antonio, Liam McGrath and Paul Whitney. In L. Conway, K. Conway and A. Smith, editors Special issue on Using Linguistic Content Analysis to Understand Islamist Terrorists. Dynamics of Asymmetric Conflict. 2011. Routledge, Taylor & Francis Group. [Forthcoming]
Technosocial Predictive Analytics for Illicit Nuclear Trafficking
Sanfilippo, AP, Butner RS, Cowell AJ, Dalton AC, Haack JN, Kreyling SJ, Riensche RM, White AM, and Whitney PD. In Social Computing, Behavioral Modeling, and Prediction. 2011. Lecture Notes in Computer Science, Springer, New York.
Expert Elicitation Method Selection Process and Method Comparison
Dalton AC, Brothers AJ, Walsh SJ, White AM, and Whitney PD. In Neuroscience and Decision Making. 2011. PNNL-SA-77676, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA. [Forthcoming]
Bayesian Networks for Social Modeling
Whitney PD, White AM, Walsh SJ, Dalton AC, and Brothers AJ. In 2011 International Conference on Social Computing, Behavioral-Cultural Modeling, and Prediction. 2011. Lecture Notes in Computer Science, Springer, New York. [Forthcoming]

2010

Modeling Impacts of Climate Change Mitigation Technologies on Power Grids
Nguyen TB, N Lu, and C Jin. In 2011 PES General Meeting. 2010. PNNL-SA-76604. [Forthcoming]
Modeling Radical Rhetoric to Identify Violent Intent
Sanfilippo AP, LR McGrath, and PD Whitney. In HSCB Focus 2011: Integrating Social Science Theory and Analytic Methods for Operational Use . 2010. PNNL-SA-76559.
Framework for a HSCB Semantic Wiki
Cowell AJ, AK Fligg, RE Hull, and PC Ellis. In HSCB Focus 2011: Integrating Social Science Theory and Analytic Methods for Operational Use. 2010. PNNL-SA-76406.
Lifestyle Factors in U.S. Residential Electricity Consumption
Sanquist TF, HM Orr, B Shui, and C Bittner. In American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy: Summer Study on Buildings. 2010. PNNL-SA-76234. [Forthcoming]
Human-Centered Technology Design for Energy Efficiency and Conservation
Sanquist TF, Meier A, and Schneider K. In American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy: Summer Study on Buildings. 2010. Panel 7: 297-309.
Total Energy Use and Related CO2 Emissions of American Household Consumption, 1997-2007
Shui B, Dowlatabadi H, and Sanquist TF. In American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy: Summer Study on Buildings. 2010. Panel 7: 310-321.
Bayesian Networks for Social Modeling
Whitney PD, White AM, Walsh SJ, Dalton AC, and Brothers AJ. In 2011 International Conference on Social Computing, Behavioral-Cultural Modeling, and Prediction. 2010. PNNL-SA-76187, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA.
Text and Structural Data Mining of Influenza Mentions in Web and Social Media
Corley CD, D Cook, AR Mikler, and KP Singh. In International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2010. 7(2):596-615.
Prototype Techno-Socio Dynamic Bayesian Net for Detecting Nuclear Material Diversion in a Uranium Enrichment Plant
Brothers AJ, PD Whitney, MM Curtis, and BW Smith. In The Nonproliferation Review. 2010. PNNL-SA-70276.
Development of a Model-driven Analytical Game: Observations and Lessons Learned
Riensche RM, L Franklin, PR Paulson, AJ Brothers, DA Niesen, LM Martucci, RS Butner, and GR Danielson. In the 3rd International Conference on Human-centric Computing (HumanCom-10). 2010. PNNL-SA-70995.
Beyond Nudges and Wedges: Human-Centered Technology Design for Energy Efficiency and Conservation
Sanquist TF, KP Schneider, and A Meier. In American Council for an Energy Efficient Economy Summer Conference on Buildings. 2010. PNNL-SA-71212.
Transforming the Energy Economy: The Role of Social and Behavioral Science
Sanquist, TF. In Proceedings of the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society. 2010.
Bridging the Gap between Human Judgment and Automated Reasoning in Predictive Analytics
Sanfilippo AP, RM Riensche, SD Unwin, and JP Amaya. In International Probabilistic Safety Assessment & Management Conference. 2010. PNNL-SA-71894.
Collaborative Knowledge Discovery & Marshalling for Intelligence & Security Applications
Cowell AJ. In IEEE Intelligence and Security Informatics Conference, Workshop on Current Issues in Predictive Approaches to Intelligence and Security Analytics. 2010. PNNL-SA-72127.
Workshop on Current Issues in Predictive Approaches to Intelligence and Security Analytics: Fostering the Creation of Decision Advantage through Model Integration and Evaluation
Sanfilippo AP. In IEEE International Conference on Intelligence and Security Informatics: Public Safety and Security. 2010. PNNL-SA-72228.
Integrated Assessment Modeling of Energy Consumption Behavior and Carbon Emissions
Sanfilippo AP. In IEEE International Conferences on Intelligence and Security Informatics. 2010. PNNL-SA-72302.
Climate Change Impacts on Residential and Commercial Loads in the Western U.S. Grid
Lu N, ZT Taylor, W Jiang, C Jin, J Correia, Jr, LYR Leung, and PC Wong. In IEEE Transactions on Power Systems. 2010. 25(1):480-488.
Proceedings to the 2010 IEEE International Conference on Intelligence and Security Informatics Public Safety and Security
May 23-26, 2010 - Vancouver, BC, Canada. Christopher C. Yang, Daniel Zeng, Ke Wang, Antonio Sanfilippo, Herbert H. Tsang, Min-Yuh Day, Uwe Gl�sser, Patricia L. Brantingham, and Hsinchun Chen (Eds.) IEEE Catalog Number: CFP10ITI-PRT. ISBN: 978-1-4244-6460-9.
Social Web mining and exploitation for serious applications: Technosocial Predictive Analytics and related technologies for public health, environmental and national security surveillance
Kamel Boulos MN, Sanfilippo AP, Corley CD, Wheeler S. . In Computer Methods and Programs in Biomedicine . 2010.
Parameterizing Bayesian Network Representations of Social-Behavioral Models by Expert Elicitation
Walsh SJ, AC Dalton, PD Whitney, and AM White. In Workshop on Current Issues in Predictive Approaches to Intelligence and Security Analytics. 2010. PNNL-SA-72080.
Social Media and Social Reality - Theory, Evidence and Validation
Reynolds W, RM Farber, MS Weber, CD Corley, AJ Cowell, and ML Gregory. In ISI. 2010. PNNL-SA-71829.
Integrating System Dynamics and Bayesian Networks with Application to Counter-IED Scenarios
Jarman KD, AJ Brothers, PD Whitney, J Young, and DA Niesen. In 10th International Probabilistic Safety Assessment & Management Conference.. 2010.
Assessing State Nuclear Weapons Proliferation: Using Bayesian Network Analysis of Social Factors
Coles GA, AJ Brothers, J Olson, and PD Whitney. In Conference Proceedings from Pacific Northwest International Conference on Global Nuclear Security - The Decade Ahead. 2010.

Publications

2009

Managing Complex Network Operation with Predictive Analytics
Zhenyu Huang, Wong PC, Mackey P, Chen Y, Ma J, Schneider K and Greitzer F. In AAAI Spring-09 Symposium on Technosocial Predictive Analytics. 2009.
Resilience, Climate Change, and Security: Modeling the Connections
Elizabeth Malone, Izaurralde C, Thomson A and Morgan L. In AAAI Spring-09 Symposium on Technosocial Predictive Analytics. 2009.
Predicting Individual Affect of Health Interventions to Reduce HPV Prevalence
Corley, R Mihalcea, Mikler A, Sanfilippo A. In Proceedings of the 2009 International Conference on Bioinformatics and Computational Biology (BIOCOMP'09). 2009.
Proceedings of the IEEE Workshop on Social Intelligence in Applied Gaming, IEEE International Conference on Social Computing
Co-edited with Scott Butner. (SocialCom-09). 2009.
Climate Change Impacts on Residential and Commercial Loads in the Western U.S. Grid
Lu N, ZT Taylor, W Jiang, J Correia, Jr, LYR Leung, and PC Wong. In IEEE Transactions on Power Systems.. 2009.
Knowledge Encapsulation and Collaboration
Cowell, A.J., Gregory, M.L., Marshall, E.J., McGrath, L. In NLP Pipeline for Special Track on Applied Natural Language Processing at 22th International Florida Artificial Intelligence Research Society Conference 2009 (FLAIRS-2009) . 2009.
Collaborative Knowledge Discovery Environments
Cowell AJ, ML Gregory, EJ Marshall, LR McGrath. In The Changing Face of Digital Science - New Practices in Scientific Collaboration Workshop at CHI 2009. AAAI Press, Boston MA. PNNL-SA-63180.
VIM: A Platform for Violent Intent Modeling
Sanfilippo AP, JC Schryver, PD Whitney, EC Augustenborg, GR Danielson, and SE Thompson. In Social Computing and Behavioral Modeling. 2009.
Knowledge Encapsulation Framework for Collaborative Social Modeling
Cowell AJ, ML Gregory, EJ Marshall, LR McGrath. In AAAI Spring Symposium on Technosocial Predictive Analytics. AAAI Press, Menlo Park, CA. 2009. PNNL-SA-62938.
The Temperature Sensitivity of the Residential Load and Commercial Building Load
Lu N, ZT Taylor, W Jaing, J Correia Jr, LR Leung, PC Wong. In 2009 IEEE Power & Energy General Meeting. 2009. PNNL-SA-63626.
Attitudes and Responses to Climate Change: the Intersection of World views and Immediate Concerns
Malone EL. Abstract submitted to Climate Change: Global Risks, Challenges and Decisions, Copenhagen, Denmark. PNNL-SA-62681.
Automated Knowledge Annotation for Dynamic Collaborative Environments
McGrath LR, AJ Cowell, ML Gregory, EJ Marshall. In The 22nd International FLAIRS Conference. 2009. PNNL-SA-63853.
User-Centered Evaluation of Technosocial Predictive Analytics
Scholtz JC, and MA Whiting. In AAAI Spring Symposium: Technosocial Predictive Analytics. 2009. AAAI Press, Menlo Park, CA.
Collaborative Knowledge Encapsulation Environments
Cowell AJ, ML Gregory, EJ Marshall, and LR McGrath. In Knowledge User Interface Track of The Fifth International Conference on Autonomic and Autonomous Systems. 2009.
Agent-Based Knowledge Discovery for Modeling and Simulation
Haack JN, AJ Cowell, EJ Marshall, AK Fligg, ML Gregory, and LR McGrath. In 2009 IEEE/WIC/ACM International Joint Conference on Web Intelligence and Intelligent Agent Technology. 2009.
Utility of Social Modeling for Proliferation Assessment - Preliminary Findings
Coles GA, ZN Gastelum, AJ Brothers, and SE Thompson. In 2009 International Nuclear Materials Management (INMM) Conference. 2009. PNNL-SA-66885
Application and Evaluation of Analytic Gaming
Riensche RM, LM Martucci, J Scholtz, and MA Whiting. In 2009 International Conference on Computational Science and Engineering. 2009.
Gaming to Predict Human Responses to Mass Casualty Events
Brigantic RT, G Muller, AF Papatyi, and AE Taylor. In 2009 IEEE International Conference on Social Computing (SocialCom-09), Workshop on Social Intelligence in Applied Gaming (SIAG09). IEEE CS Press, Vancouver, Canada. 2009.
Avatars in Analytical Gaming
Cowell AJ, and AK Cowell. In 2009 IEEE International Conference on Social Computing (SocialCom-09), Workshop on Social Intelligence in Applied Gaming (SIAG09). IEEE CS Press, Vancouver, Canada. 2009.
The Future Interaction of Science and Innovation Policy for Climate Change and National Security
Malone EL, AJ Cowell, and RM Riensche. In 2009 Atlanta Conference on Science and Innovation Policy. 2009.
Dynamic Document Discovery for Automatic Generation of Social Network Models
Miller KE, AJ Cowell, AK Fligg, ML Gregory, and L McGrath. In RIAO'2010 : Recherche d'Information Assistée par Ordinateur / Adaptativity, Personalization and Fusion of Heterogeneous Information. 2009. PNNL-SA-70139.
Designing a Collaborative Visual Analytics Tool for Social and Technological Change Prediction
Wong PC, LYR Leung, N Lu, MJ Scott, PS Mackey, HP Foote, J Correia, Jr, ZT Taylor, J Xu, SD Unwin, and AP Sanfilippo. In IEEE Computer Graphics and Applications . 2009. 29(5):58-68.
Reports of the AAAI 2009 Spring Symposia: Technosocial Predictive Analytics
AP Sanfilippo. In AI Magazine . 2009. PNNL-SA-67819.
Data Mining the Social Web: Technosocial Predictive Analytics and Related Technologies for Public Health, Environmental and National Security Surveillance
Kamel Boulos M, AP Sanfilippo, CD Corley, and S Wheeler. In Journal of the American Medical Informatics Association . 2009. PNNL-SA-68949.
Serious Gaming for Predictive Analytics
Riensche RM, PR Paulson, GR Danielson, SD Unwin, RS Butner, SM Miller, L Franklin, N Zuljevic. In AAAI Spring Symposium on Technosocial Predictive Analytics. AAAI Press, Menlo Park, CA. 2009. PNNL-SA-62908.
Automating Frame Analysis
Sanfilippo AP, L Franklin, SC Tratz, GR Danielson, ND Mileson, RM Riensche, and L McGrath. Chapter 26 in Social Computing, Behavioral Modeling, and Prediction, ed. H. Liu, J.J. Salerno, M.J. Young, pp. 239-248. Springer, New York NY.
Technosocial Predictive Analytics in Support of Naturalistic Decision Making.
Sanfilippo AP, AJ Cowell, EL Malone, RM Riensche, JJ Thomas, SD Unwin, PD Whitney, and PC Wong. In The 9th bi-annual International Conference on Naturalistic Decision Making Jointly organized with the British Computer Society INTERACTION Specialist Group, Covent Garden, London, UK, 23-26 June, 2009. PDF Version
Technosocial Predictive Analytics: User-Centered Evaluations
Scholtz J, MA Whiting. In AAAI Spring Symposium on Technosocial Predictive Analytics. AAAI Press, Menlo Park, CA. 2009. PNNL-SA-65258.
Consumer Choice and Dempster-Shafer Models of Threat Prioritization for Emerging Dual-Use Technologies: Application to Synthetic Biology
Unwin SD and BA Fecht. Journal Article. In Defense & Security Analysis. 25(1). March 2009. PNNL-SA-59853.
Technosocial Modeling of IED Threat Scenarios and Attacks
Whitney, PD, AJ Brothers, GA Coles, J Young, DA Niesen, KE Wolf, SE Thompson, JM Madsen, and CL Henderson. In AAAI Spring Symposium on Technosocial Predictive Analytics. AAAI Press, Menlo Park, CA. 2009.
Collaborative Visual Analytics in Multidisciplinary Technosocial Predictive Studies.
Wong PC, LYR Leung, N Lu, MJ Scott, PS Mackey, HP Foote, BK Bragg, J Correia Jr, W Jiang, ZT Taylor, YL Xie, J Xu, SD Unwin, AP Sanfilippo. 2009. PNNL-SA-64416
Predicting the Impact of Climate Change on U.S. Power Grids and Its Wider Implications on National Security
Wong PC, LR Leung, N Lu, ML Paget, J Correia Jr, PS Mackey, NT Taylor Jr, YL Xie, J Xu, SD Unwin, AP Sanfilippo. In AAAI Spring Symposium on Technosocial Predictive Analytics. AAAI Press, Menlo Park, CA. 2009.

2008

Climate Change Impacts on Residential and Commercial Loads in the Western U.S. Grid
Lu N, ZT Taylor, W Jiang, YL Xie, LR Leung, J Correia Jr, PC Wong, PS Mackey, ML Paget. 2008. Formal Report. PNNL-17826. Journal Article. PNNL-SA-62518.
Resilience, climate change, and security: modeling the connections
Malone EL. Abstract submitted to RESILIENCE 2008 - Resilience, Adaption and Transformation in Turbulent Times/International Science and Policy Conference, Stockholm, Sweden. PNNL-SA-58578.
VIMS: A Platform for Violent Intent Modeling.
Sanfilippo AP, JC Schryver, PD Whitney, EC Augustenborg, GR Danielson, and SE Thompson. In Second International Workshop for Social Computing, Behavioral Modeling, and Prediction. 2008. PNNL-SA-63357.
The Use of Dynamic Stochastic Social Behavior Models to Produce Likelihood Functions for Risk Modeling of Proliferation and Terrorist Attacks
Young J, SE Thompson, AJ Brothers, PD Whitney, GA Coles, CL Henderson, KE Wolf, and BL Hoopes. In Ninth International Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference Proceedings. Edge Publication Group, Hong Kong, China. 2008.

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